Monday, June 15, 2009 at 8:06 Eastern NYC Time
Good morning - here goes another week! Not sure what to expect this week really. Waiting to do the NY Morning Breakout strategy on EUR/USD. Hmmm - Market seems still this morning. Must be some news coming out. Going to check. Ah Ok, Looks like there is news release out this morning with potential large impact from US Treasury. And Geithner is speaking at 10 a.m. Eastern time. A few times he has said some silly things lately which seemed to cause a whole lot of selling on the US dollar. Anything could happen. I do have a few things that have to get done first thing this morning so I may not be able to wait around to enter this trade. Update - I’m not trading this morning due to huge gap between actual and predicted news data numbers. Not sure what is going to happen if anything. Market seems nervous this morning (or maybe its just me!)
==> Potential pips here based on NY Open Strategy = -40
==> My actual pips = +0 Update 2:15 pm Eastern NYC Time
It looks like there are several good Method 1 Preferred set ups this afternoon. It appears there will be some good loophole trade possiblities in all of the following pairs: USD/CAD, USD/CHF, EUR/USD and EUR/GBP. Based on the Method 1 Preferred formula, I think I will likely choose to go LONG on EUR/GBP or maybe on EUR/USD (or maybe both.) I’ll check back in later this afternoon/evening around just before 6 pm Eastern NYC time and I’ll post my decision.
Update: 7:30 pm Eastern NYC time: I’ve decided to go with my friend the Euro. I’ve put in an entry order to go LONG on EUR/USD at 1.3806. Stop Loss 1.3767 and Take Profit at 1.3896. If I am up over 1.3850 I will trail the stop to lock in some profits since I realize this would be a bit risky counter-trend trade. I do think there will be some action higher before further lows, though, and I hope to cut a piece of it!
Update 10 pm eastern: I just checked in and some buyers just came in the market. I hope they bring their friends now. I am LONG on EUR/USD with SL at 1.3745 and TP at 1.3896. Will likely close profits early if this trade makes some progress.
Update 1:30 am EST New York Time - I just moved my SL to my entry level at 1.3806 making this trade risk free now. Update 3:07 am EST - I’ve moved SL to 1.3836 to lock in 30 pips, and also moved my TP down to 1.3876. I have to go to sleep. So I wake up in the morning with either +30 pips or +70 pips. I’m good with that - no risk.
Update: As I typed the above, London openend and pushed my trade up to +60 pips. I went ahead and closed it, satisfied with that result and I will sleep well.
=> Potential pips = +80
=> My Actual pips = +60 pips
Tuesday, June 16, 2009 9:00 a.m. est time (nyc time):
The NY Open Breakout strategy would have been a loser again today. I didn’t trade it as I hit the snooze button when it went off at 6:45 a.m. since I was up until 2:30 a.m. last night collecting pips from the Euro. Market is re-defining its positions this week and I will likely hold off on the morning breakout strategy until we get a little bit back to normal.
==>Potential pips this morning = -40
==> My actual pips this morning = +0
I’m hoping for a 4-hr Sterling set up to materialize this afternoon and during the Asian session. Otherwise I won’t be even considering to trade again until tomorrow afternoon. This is when it’s hard - to stay out of the market when you know major moves are likely to happen. But I’ve learned my lesson. If the market is acting funny or if the set-up is not there. BEWARE! This is a beware week. I’ve even been looking and reading some of the pro-traders’ recommendations and commentary this week — they have been often wrong this week. This is a week where the technicals don’t tell the story. It’s mostly about market psychology right now. And the market is anxious. We’ll probably see mostly range trading the rest of the week. And I personally don’t have any good range trading strategies. Perhaps it will be a good week to research and find some good range trading techiques!
June 16 6:40 pm eastern NYC time: I have just gone long on USD/JPY at 96.40.
Stop Loss at 95.85. Take Profit set for now at 97.40. This is once again based on my Method 1 Preferred strategy. There is a preferred setup at the close of the markets today….except it wasn’t a perfect set up. But close enough that I’m willing to take the trade. It’s time for a correction here I believe (and I hope!)
Update - 9:35 pm est. : Oops, I had the close/sell box open and I accidentally pressed enter and sold my trade at +2 pips, lol. I am going to take that as a “sign” that maybe I should quit trading and go to bed early tonight. I am really, really tired. I don’t know if I’ll be back tonight or not, most likely not. I need a break anyway.
==> Potential Result = + 80 pips !
==> My actual result - +2 pips (lol when my finger slipped on the keyboard and closed the trade, at least it wasn’t a loss!)
Wait a minute. It looks like the GBP/USD is setting up for the 4 hr Sterling Strategy. I will check back in a couple of hours to see if it is forming or not. Maybe I can catch a quick nap between now and then!
Update 11:40 p.m. EST NYC time:
I have just gone LONG on GBP/USD at 1.6397. Stop Loss 1.6367. Take Profit at 1.6467.
This is based on the 4 Hr Sterling Strategy.
==> RESULT = +70 pips !
Thurs June 18 12 noon EST New York time I didn’t trade this morning. I was running around getting my daughters to take them to some kids activities for the morning and didn’t even check in before we left. However I am looking at it now a nd it appears the the NY morning Breakout strategy would have been effective today for +40 pips.
==> POTENTIAL Result = + 40 pips
==> My actual result = + 0 pips (didn’t trade this morning, too busy!)
Update 7:40 pm Eastern New York time:
There is another 4 hr Sterling Strategy set up this evening on the GBP/USD. Also several Method 1 Preferred set ups too, in the USD/JPY, the USD/CHF, and the AUD/USD.
I still just do one trade at a time. So many to choose from again tonight but I think I’m going to go on the GBP/USD. I’m waiting for a breakout of either 1.6422 or 1.6377.
Update - I went short on GBP/USD at 1.6370. SL 1.6408 and TP of 1.6310. The trade is under water right now. Hoping it will turn around quickly….but I’m due for a loss this week since I haven’t had one yet. So let’s just see….
Ok….well that was quick….I’m out for tonight then. What will I do now?? Maybe I’ll go do some shopping on ebay tonight. Happy trading everyone.
==> Potential Pips = - 30
==> My Actual Pips = - 30
Update again 11:50 pm EST: I’m back, lol! Looking at all the possibilities for tonight, I decided to go ahead with the Method 1 Preferred Strategy trade on the EUR/USD since it is not too late to get in on the rules of that strategy. So I’ve gone LONG on EUR/USD at 1.3945. SL at 1.3917 and TP at 1.3995.
Update - I took profit early for just 20 pips.
=> POTENTIAL RESULT = pending
==> MY ACTUAL RESULT = +20 pips
Thursday Jun8 18th - 11:30 a.m EST New york time:
The NY Morning Breakout strategy would have been successful this morning. Again I wasn’t home to trade it this morning.
==> Potential pips = +40
==> My actual pips = +0
June 18th 11:20 pm EST New York time:
I don’t see any of my 3 main set ups tonight in my preferred currency pairs. However I am looking at the USD/CHF and noticing that it has been consolidating very tightly all afternoon. Then when you look on the daily timeframe, today’s bar closed completely inside yesterday’s bar (an inside bar on the daily chart). So this is a set up for a good breakout trade. I am probably just going to trade a basic breakout of the afternoon’s lows/highs when the Frankfurt/Geneva markets open in about 2 hours. It looks like the low is 1.020 and the high is 1.079. I’m thinking it will go SHORT first for a pullback; then possibly move higher tomorrow…. but as always, we shall see which direction the breakout decides to go!
Update - NOTHING was happening. It’s like all the bank traders took off early for the weekend to the beach, lol. I didn’t put in a trade at all and went to bed early for me — at 1 am!
June 19 Friday at 10:15 pm NYC time:
I am SHORT on EUR/USD at 1.3915. SL 1.3955 and TP 1.3875. This is based on NY Morning Breakout strategy. I waited longer today to enter due to the low volume of trading that is happening this morning. Wanted some extra verification that there would hopefully not be some big player buying it back up to 1.4 at the last minute.
Update: Ha ha! Looks like London bought it up at the last minute of their session. This is the game. Someone bought it up just because they could. During the sideshow, my position was taken out. Well, what goes up that high in such a thin market must come down this afternoon.
==>POTENTIAL RESULT = -40 pips
==> MY ACTUAL RESULT = - 40 pips
Update: I’ve gone SHORT on Euro at 1.3969. SL 1.4012 and TP and 1.3900. I should not be doing this because I am aware I am trying to chase back some profits and now I working “off strategy” lol. But I’ve earned enough pips the last 3 weeks that I’m willing and able to risk 50 more. As I write this I know I shouldn’t be doing this but I’m doing it anyway. I guess because it’s Friday, lol.
Update again 12:45 NYC time:
Ok, I’ve closed out that position for a few pips and now I am officially scalping to get some pips back, lol…… we all have weaknesses and mine comes on Fridays. I’ve worked really hard to control these impulses but I just can’t help it today I suppose I need a “fix.” LOL. I will report back on what happens during my lapse of sanity, lol.
==> RESULT = + 5 pips, lol…. thats all my scalping gave me. But I did get my fix. lol. good weekend everyone.
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==>My actual pips so far this week +85 pips
==> Potential pips so far this week (based on strict adherence to my 3 favorite strategies): +300
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